Monday, October 21, 2024, 11:30 AM – 1 PM EDT

Alan Abramowitz -- Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science
 

"What to Expect on November 5th: Lessons from the Time-for-Change Forecasting Model"

The time-for-change forecasting model provides a tool for predicting the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections with a high degree of accuracy several months before Election Day based on three key factors—the incumbent president’s popularity, economic conditions and the number of terms that the president’s party has held the White House. I will explore the implications of the model for the 2024 presidential election, the relationship between the model’s prediction and the results of recent public opinion polls and the outlook for the all-important electoral vote.