Monday, February 8, 2021, 11:30 AM – 1 PM EST

Talea Mayo, Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics

 “Water Water Everywhere:  Numerical Modeling to Simulate the Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Storm Surge”

Climate change, which will cause global mean sea level rise and increase coastal flood risk in many places, has significant implications for tropical cyclone climatology.  Hurricane intensity, size, and translation speed are all expected to increase in the future, influencing the generation and propagation of storm surge.  Dr. Mayo, a computational mathematician with expertise in the development and application of hydrodynamic models for coastal hazards, will discuss two approaches to understanding what climate change means for storm surge risk.  One approach uses a numerical model to simulate synthetic storm surges for coastal communities along the U.S. North Atlantic, seeking to understand the present day flood risk and how it will change over the next century. In the second approach, another numerical model is used to simulate historical storm surges that impacted the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Coasts of the continental United States from 2000-2013 and then to simulate the same storm surges under projected end-of-century climate conditions. Both approaches suggest that there will be notable increases in inundation in the areas involved. Perhaps such simulations of a future of flooding can help us prevent that from becoming so much of a reality? We can ask Dr. Mayo that question on Monday, February 8.